Explained: IPL 2025 Playoffs Chennai Super Kings (CSK) Best Qualification Scenario

Explained: Chennai Super Kings (CSK) IPL 2025 Playoffs Best Qualification Scenario

April 27, 2025 Adesh Kothari

5 wins from 5 matches must in our best qualification scenario for Chennai Super Kings (CSK) for the Indian Premier League (IPL) 2025.

The Chennai Super Kings, the Yellow Army, and the 5 times Champions have had an unforgettable tournament so far in IPL 2025. With 2 wins from 9 games, CSK are currently in the 10th position, and things are looking ominous for them. But all is not completely for the Yellow Army, and there is still some light in the tunnel for them. But before we get to how they can qualify for IPL 2025, let’s quickly review where things went wrong for them.

The most important aspect of Chennai Super Kings has been their focus on trusting tried and tested experienced players. They have done this for the past 17 years, and did repeat the same for IPL 2025 as well. They bought the players they wanted. All were experienced, and most of them were skilled in more than one area. But even after assembling their likeable team, where did things go wrong for them?

Well, there can be multiple reasons for CSK’s failure, but two things stand out the most. One is their inability to prepare spin-friendly pitches at home, and the second is their inability to adapt to the newer demands of T20 cricket – that is playing with more intent, and the ability to utilize the powerplay effectively. Both these things went against CSK’s natural gameplay, and they were simply unable to adapt to the newer demands of the game. At to this form of most of the players wasn’t good.

Chennai Super Kings (CSK) Qualification Scenario for IPL 2025

Current Points: 4 // Pending Fixtures: PBKS (h), RCB (a), KKR (a), RR (h) & GT (a)

But all said and down, doors are not completely closed for the Men in Yellow. They might be having only 4 points now, and 5 wins in 5 matches from here will take them to 14 points. But can CSK still qualify with 14 points? Well, they certainly can, but not without the help of other teams for sure. For Chennai Super Kings to qualify a lot of probabilities need to work in their favour, and that is already an uphill task.

The most important aspect for CSK to qualify from here is having the top 2-3 teams going extremely well from here so that the fourth spot opens up pretty nicely. Now, if we look at the IPL 2025 points table, Gujarat Titans and Delhi Capitals are locked at 12 points from just 8 games. CSK will need these two teams to qualify without any doubt. So, in a best-case scenario to work in CSK’s favour, they can expect GT and DC to get 20 and 18 points respectively, and that’s basically 4 and 3 wins respectively from 6 games from here. This is completely possible and realistic.

Now, while the top 2 teams get a finish as per CSK’s wish, the third team will have to be Punjab Kings. The Punjab Kings won a point via washout against KKR, and that kind of doesn’t help CK much. With PBKS now at 11 points, they should ideally fetch 2 wins from 5 games from here, and that shall take them to 15 points. This also looks realistic as winning 2 games from 5 matches isn’t difficult for this team that has looked like a breath of fresh air this season.

Fourth Team Conundrum

Now comes the biggest twist, and the one that probably looks unrealistic. If CSK were to qualify at 14 points, CSK would also hope for MI, LSG, and RCB to end on 14 points or lower. This is extremely difficult and slightly unrealistic as well, and for that to happen, one of these teams will need to win a maximum of 1 win from here to keep themselves on 14 points. This definitely looks unrealistic, but mathematically it is possible.

So, if we analyze the fixtures of all teams, we can see a scenario where CSK, RCB, LSG, and MI, all end up on 14 points, and CSK qualify basis of a superior NRR. This happened with RCB in 2014, so it can repeat with CSK as all, but the probability of that happening looks minimal. With these four teams ending on 14 points, the other 3 teams – KKR, SRH, and RR may end up on 11, 10, and 10 points respectively.

Overall, 14 points can turn out to be a lock-in stage for many teams if things go as well as expected. But the top 6 teams are playing such brilliant cricket, and even the rank 6 team is on 10 points. With almost 5-6 matches left for each team, 16 or 15 looks an ideal number for the fourth-ranked team this season. Whatever the finish is, it almost feels like an all-over scenario for CSK – at least realistically; although mathematically they are still there.

Conclusion

So, that’s about the best qualification scenario for Chennai Super Kings (CSK) for IPL 2025. While things are not completely lost for CSK, they should forget about the end result from here, and give more than 100% from here. The team is already in a transition phase, and the inclusion of Dewald Brevis, Ayush Mhatre, Shaik Rasheed in the playing 11 shows their eagerness to adapt, and focus on the future. Wherever they end this season, CSK have finally taken some tough and important steps to redefine their brand of cricket.